A useful analogy might be to look at US auto manufacturing when the Japanese were eating the US’s lunch in the 1980s. How long did it take Detroit to regain the manufacturing expertise to “remember how to build things”? About 10-15 years industrywide from my recollection. And that was for a very complex high-consequence physical product that was a moving target technologically while necessary process changes were being made. I invite others’ thoughts and memories on this…
To the extent Trump was elected with a mandate, it was to do the things his supporters thought he was going to do from hopeful "4d chess", and not actually to do his best to destroy the country.
My partner was talking to a random person at the supermarket yesterday who, unprompted, started complaining about tariffs/inflation. He voted for Trump and was upset and regretful about what Trump was doing, and saying that he can't believe that Trump "lied".
I suspect this collapse of cognitive dissonance is pretty widespread, especially among the low information voters that thought they were getting neutral information from Fox News etc. This is a mere two months from when the buffoon took power, not the usual sour taste that develops three years into a president's term.
I think it will just take more time than people anticipate. Like 2-3 generations. But it will come back even if only because China's days are limited due to demography. Tariffs or not, but in 50 years it will be very difficult to make things there because they will have acute shortage of workers. Not qualified workers, but any workers. Those who start working on reshoring sooner, will win - regardless of politics. China has it's end already baked in and there is no way for it to bounce back, so everyone has to start preparing.
You are making the same mistake that basically everyone makes when talking about this. When "it comes back," does it mean "manufacturing jobs" or "manufacturing value created?"
Because manufacturing jobs are never coming back, short of WWIII starting. Automation has seen to that - we won't waste human beings on something as dumb as pulling levers 1000x a day.
But if you mean "value created" then manufacturing never left [1]. The US simply moved up the value chain, producing more complicated and useful technology with fewer workers and more automation.
Both China and the US understand that workers' days are numbered. The future belongs to robots and the folks who know how to program them, not workers who directly operate machines. By 2050, barring any really stupid changes in immigration policy or women's rights, both nations will be about 500M people - but the US will be more productive per citizen.
Yes right, i mean manufacturing value added, there is no way to return manufacturing jobs en masse.
Macrotrends is a spam site that is very well-indexed. I have seen it post blatantly, unbelievably false stats all the time that i have developed a blindness for it in my google feel, i automatically scroll past it. Yes most of the time numbers there are correct, but it can't at all be trusted.
And well, there is no way that either China will shrink to 500 M by 2050 barring WWIII, or U.S. grow to 500M unless there is universal, free-for-all, open border policy in place.
A useful analogy might be to look at US auto manufacturing when the Japanese were eating the US’s lunch in the 1980s. How long did it take Detroit to regain the manufacturing expertise to “remember how to build things”? About 10-15 years industrywide from my recollection. And that was for a very complex high-consequence physical product that was a moving target technologically while necessary process changes were being made. I invite others’ thoughts and memories on this…
Please don't assume Trump=All of America. Just say Trump.
Are you refering to the twice elected, current President of The United States,with 1300 days of mandate left, or someone else called Trump?
Trump has no mandate. He only barely won the election.
To the extent Trump was elected with a mandate, it was to do the things his supporters thought he was going to do from hopeful "4d chess", and not actually to do his best to destroy the country.
My partner was talking to a random person at the supermarket yesterday who, unprompted, started complaining about tariffs/inflation. He voted for Trump and was upset and regretful about what Trump was doing, and saying that he can't believe that Trump "lied".
I suspect this collapse of cognitive dissonance is pretty widespread, especially among the low information voters that thought they were getting neutral information from Fox News etc. This is a mere two months from when the buffoon took power, not the usual sour taste that develops three years into a president's term.
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I think it will just take more time than people anticipate. Like 2-3 generations. But it will come back even if only because China's days are limited due to demography. Tariffs or not, but in 50 years it will be very difficult to make things there because they will have acute shortage of workers. Not qualified workers, but any workers. Those who start working on reshoring sooner, will win - regardless of politics. China has it's end already baked in and there is no way for it to bounce back, so everyone has to start preparing.
You are making the same mistake that basically everyone makes when talking about this. When "it comes back," does it mean "manufacturing jobs" or "manufacturing value created?"
Because manufacturing jobs are never coming back, short of WWIII starting. Automation has seen to that - we won't waste human beings on something as dumb as pulling levers 1000x a day.
But if you mean "value created" then manufacturing never left [1]. The US simply moved up the value chain, producing more complicated and useful technology with fewer workers and more automation.
Both China and the US understand that workers' days are numbered. The future belongs to robots and the folks who know how to program them, not workers who directly operate machines. By 2050, barring any really stupid changes in immigration policy or women's rights, both nations will be about 500M people - but the US will be more productive per citizen.
1: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/uni...
Yes right, i mean manufacturing value added, there is no way to return manufacturing jobs en masse.
Macrotrends is a spam site that is very well-indexed. I have seen it post blatantly, unbelievably false stats all the time that i have developed a blindness for it in my google feel, i automatically scroll past it. Yes most of the time numbers there are correct, but it can't at all be trusted.
And well, there is no way that either China will shrink to 500 M by 2050 barring WWIII, or U.S. grow to 500M unless there is universal, free-for-all, open border policy in place.
I don't find these kinds of predictions convincing. They tend to extrapolate forward linearly without factoring in human will and degrees of freedom.
I mean, that generation is already born and is being born now. Number of those people is already known and it won't increase magically.